Introduction

In evaluating college football coaches, we strive to quantify their true impact on the program. Wins, losses, and raw recruiting rankings don’t tell the full story. Our system bridges that gap, using data-driven insights to measure a coach’s effect both on the field and in roster construction.

At the heart of our analysis is the SABAN rating, a comprehensive metric that translates coaching performance and talent acquisition into a single number, showing how much value a coach adds per play compared to the average coach.

Importantly, the SABAN metric adjusts for the strength of the opponent’s roster and coaching staff. This ensures that a coach’s performance is evaluated within the context of the competition, recognizing that success against tougher opponents carries greater weight.

Intuition Behind the SABAN Metric

The SABAN rating captures the number of points a coach adds, on average, for every play compared to an “average” coach. An average coach, by definition, would have a SABAN rating of 0, meaning their team performs as expected. A positive SABAN rating, for example, 0.05, means the coach is adding 0.05 points per play above average.

Over the course of a game, those small advantages accumulate, potentially making the difference in tight matchups. Conversely, a negative SABAN rating indicates a coach is underperforming relative to expectations.

This metric isn’t just about theory—it directly connects a coach’s decisions to on-field outcomes. By incorporating offensive and defensive performance, roster quality, and the strength of the opposition, the SABAN rating provides a clear, fair measure of coaching impact.

Coaching Ratings

Coaching Ratings focus on how well a coach manages in-game decisions to impact performance. By analyzing Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, we measure how much a coach improves their team’s ability to score points (offense) and limit opponents (defense).

• Offensive Coaching: Higher scores indicate the coach is increasing scoring opportunities above what an average coach would achieve with the same roster. This includes play-calling, scheming, and game management.
• Defensive Coaching: Lower scores are better, as they show the coach is suppressing opponents’ scoring more effectively than a typical coach. This includes strategies to neutralize opposing offenses and adapt to game situations.

By combining offensive and defensive ratings into a net coaching score (Offensive Rating - Defensive Rating), we can quantify how much total value a coach adds during games.

Talent Ratings

Talent acquisition is as critical as coaching decisions. Our Talent Ratings measure how well a coach builds a roster that exceeds the program’s historical expectations.

This metric starts with a baseline—what we expect a school’s talent level to be based on past recruiting success. We then calculate how much the coach surpasses this baseline, incorporating both traditional recruiting and transfer portal activity.

To make this meaningful, we multiply the talent surplus by position-specific coefficients derived from our model. These coefficients show how improvements at specific positions (e.g., quarterback, offensive line) affect the team’s EPA per play. This ensures the Talent Rating reflects the real on-field impact of a coach’s recruiting efforts, not just the raw star rankings of incoming players.

The SABAN Rating System

The SABAN rating (Systematic Analytics of Both Ability and Net-talent) integrates Coaching and Talent Ratings into a single figure that reflects a coach’s holistic influence on a program.

The higher the SABAN rating, the more a coach is elevating their team’s performance relative to the average coach. Adjusted for opponent strength, it simplifies a coach’s value into one comprehensive number, making it an invaluable tool for assessing potential hires or evaluating existing leadership.